Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Less avalanche danger is expected on Monday.
Detailed Forecast
Light rain or snow showers should be seen on on Monday and end Monday night at slightly lower snow levels. But amounts should be light in the Olympics and not cause a significant or extensive new avalanche danger.
Further consolidation and stabilizing should be the main trend and the avalanche danger will be lower on Monday than the past few days.
The equinox is not too far off and the sun is gaining power. Further triggered wet loose avalanches will be possible on Monday mainly below treeline. Watch for pinwheels and surface wet snow deeper than a few inches.
There were cornice failures the past few days at Hurricane and further natural or triggered cornice failures should be possible at Hurricane. Avoid walking on or below cornices.
Old small areas of wind slab might still be seen at the highest elevations. Watch for signs of firmer wind transported snow in the highest areas above treeline.
Snowpack Discussion
The past month has had 2 major storm cycles and periods of avalanches in the Olympics and Cascades.
The first two week storm cycle ended about 25 February that produced about 9 feet at Hurricane and avalanches at Hurricane and across region.
NWAC observers Tyler and Katie Reid on Friday reported wet and saturated upper snow pack layers but with no positive snow pit test results and numerous wet loose avalanches to size 2. Warming effects had penetrated quite deeply into upper snowpack layers.
Here is a video from Tyler and Katy at Hurricane on Friday.
The second storm cycle is coming to an end on Sunday morning. This storm cycle turned out to be basically as wet as the last one! Water equivalents and snowfall for the past week are about 4 inches and 2 feet for Hurricane Ridge. So this has been another period of rain and wet heavy snowfall. This produced many avalanches the past week including reports from Holden Village, Stevens Pass, Tumwater Canyon, Alpental and Snoqualmie with pass closures at times last week.
Reports from the ranger and also Tyler and Katie on Sunday indicate quite a few recent cornice failures on Saturday.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Wind Slabs
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1