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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2015–Jan 18th, 2015
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Mt Hood.

Sunday should be fairly stormy day at Mt Hood. New storm and wind slab layers are likely.

Detailed Forecast

A wet cold front will cross the Northwest Saturday night. Snow levels will be highest on Saturday night. A good period of southwest-west flow, moderate to heavy orographic snow showers, and cooling with lowering snow levels should be seen on Sunday. New snow by the end of the day Sunday at Mt Hood should vary a lot from lower to higher elevations with 10 inches or more at higher elevations.

Building storm slab is likely mainly near and above treeline on Sunday. Watch for cracking and releases on steep sheltered slopes where snowfall exceeds an inch an hour for more than a few hours.

Building wind slab is also likely mainly near and above treeline on Sunday. Watch for firmer wind transported snow on lee slopes.

The cooling should cause some good snow conditions on other slopes. Don't let powder starvation change plans to stick to safe slopes on Sunday. It is always a good plan to give new snow layers a day to stabilize before venturing to steeper slopes after a storm.

Snowpack Discussion

A front late Thursday was followed by showers Friday. At NWAC stations at Mt Hood  this gave about 4-8 inches of storm snow.

While the Mt Hood Meadows patrol on Friday morning at 6600 feet reported a weak bond of new storm snow to the old crust, subsequent observations in the afternoon indicated there were very few avalanche releases with explosive control. Shallow storm snow, rough underlying crust surfaces and non-uniformed loading were some contributing factors.

The underlying mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood should mainly consist of melt-freeze crusts and stabilized rounded grain layers. This is due in great part to the warm and dry period from about 6-15 January and previous similar periods so far this winter. Persistent weak layers are not expected at Mt Hood.

The overall snowpack remains well below normal for this time of year and some windward or southerly aspects may have little if any snow cover.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Release of a soft cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within the storm snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slab problems typically last between a few hours and few days. Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

You can reduce your risk from Storm Slabs by waiting a day or two after a storm before venturing into steep terrain. Storm slabs are most dangerous on slopes with terrain traps, such as timber, gullies, over cliffs, or terrain features that make it difficult for a rider to escape off the side.

 

Storm slabs usually stabilize within a few days, and release at or below the trigger point. They exist throughout the terrain, and can be avoided by waiting for the storm snow to stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1

Wind Slabs

Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

 

Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..

 

Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.

 

Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 1