Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 12th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Wind Slabs.
rgoddard,
Avalanche Canada
Large avalanches have been reported from our nearest neighbours. We should suspect similar conditions in our zone.
Watch for signs of instability like natural avalanches, whumpfing, and shooting cracks as you travel through the terrain. You can also read our latest blog for advice on how to manage this problem.
Summary
Confidence
Low
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches have been observed or reported in this region. However, note that we have had very few field observations. Not having reports of avalanches does not mean that they are not happening or are likely to happen. There have been numerous large avalanches reported in regions all around ours that failed on wind slabs and on buried weak layers.
Please consider filling out a Mountain Information Network report if you are heading to the backcountry.
Snowpack Summary
At just below the treeline the total snowpack ranges between 80 and 120 cm. The top 20 to 30 cm is fairly light fresh snow that has been added incrementally over the last four days. On the west, north, and east aspects this snow sits on wind slabs. There were scattered reports of finding the lighter snow sitting on a buried layer of surface hoar in sheltered terrain and a sun crust on south-facing slopes.
A concerning layer of surface hoar from mid-November is buried down up to 40 to 60 cm. This layer could become more reactive as slab properties above it increase with new snow and wind.
Much of our region's snowpack is speculated at this time and information has been extrapolated from surrounding regions and modeling.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Clear, no accumulation, winds northeast 15 km/h, temperature -8 C at 1500 m.
Tuesday
A mix of sun and cloud, no accumulation, winds northwest 10 km/h, temperature -6 C at 1500 m.
Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud, trace accumulation, winds northwest 15 to 20 km/h, temperature -5 C at 1500 m.
Thursday
Sunny with cloudy periods, no accumulation, winds northwest 10 to 25 km/h, temperature -10 C at 1500 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
- Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- In areas where deep persistent slabs may exist, avoid shallow or variable depth snowpacks and unsupported terrain features.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
A surface hoar layer from mid-November is buried down 40 to 60 cm in the region. As snow continues to fall adding load to the snowpack it is likely that this layer is approaching a tipping point where it will become more sensitive to rider triggering. Use extra caution at the treeline where this layer is more prominent and look for signs of instability and a stiff feeling of snow.
There has been very little reporting on layer but it has been producing avalanches for our nearest neighbours. Use caution and assess the snow as you go. The snowpack is shallow for this time of year and the possibility for triggering weak layers further down is possible.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Wind Slabs
A light dusting of snow covers wind slabs created earlier in the week.
Wind slab avalanches could step down to deeper layers resulting in large destructive avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 13th, 2022 4:00PM
