Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 27th, 2022 1:30PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Loose Dry.

Avalanche Canada JMackenzie, Avalanche Canada

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Up to 40cm of recent snow in the past 48 hours, coupled with periods of strong winds have elevated the avalanche hazard. Conservative route-finding is in order.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Observations were very limited due to poor visibility, but one report was received from an ACMG Guide in the Dog Leg area. He reported a size 2.0 loose dry on a NE aspect that ran into typical ski lines. It is estimated that this slide occurred Sunday morning. Forecasters expect more widespread avalanche activity due to the rapid loading, but this is unconfirmed.

Snowpack Summary

30 to 40cm of snow has fallen in the past 48 hours with much more in wind drifted areas. This rapid loading has led to a surface instability with loose dry avalanches running in steeper terrain. Due to poor weather, observations are limited at upper elevations, but forecasters expect wind slabs to be present in lee and cross-loaded features due to the recent strong winds. There is also a potential for reverse wind loading due to northerly winds in the last 24 hours. Therefore, expect wind slabs on all aspects in the alpine.

Weather Summary

Monday will bring much cooler temps (-20ish) under mainly cloudy skies and light northerly winds. Wind-chill values could be brutal! Light flurries will fall on Monday with accumulations near 3cm. Tuesday will be mainly sunny and cold, while Wednesday will warm up slightly with more snow expected.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Ice climbers should be equipped with avalanche safety gear.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs

Wind slabs are expected in all Alpine terrain on all aspects. At Treeline these slabs are expected to be more confined to ridge-crests and gully features. Due to the rapid loading on Sunday, it is expected that a natural avalanche cycle has occurred.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Loose Dry

An icon showing Loose Dry

Rapid loading has led to an avalanche cycle of loose dry slides up to size 2. Steep, rocky terrain and confined features such as gullies are areas of concern.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Nov 28th, 2022 3:00PM

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