Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2018 4:27PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is high, and the below treeline rating is high. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Cornices.

shorton, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Avoid avalanche terrain on Saturday. Intense snowfall and a reactive crust will make conditions very dangerous.

Summary

Confidence

High - on Saturday

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY: Heavy snow starting Friday night with 30-40 cm possible by the end of the day, strong south wind, freezing level around 700 m with alpine high temperatures around -2 C. SUNDAY: Some isolated flurries with clearing throughout the day, moderate northeast wind, freezing level dropping with alpine high temperatures around -6 C.MONDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods, light northeast wind, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

Storm snow on the crust has been reactive since Wednesday, producing both natural and skier-triggered avalanches in the size 1-2 range at treeline elevations. See here for an example.Expect storm slabs to become much thicker and touchier on Saturday given the poor bond between the new snow and the crust.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow is accumulating above a hard rain crust that extends into alpine terrain. Reports indicate the snow is poorly bonded to the crust. By Saturday afternoon, storm slabs will likely be over 50 cm thick and become very touchy. There are no significant layers of concern below the crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Thick storm slabs are forming above a widespread crust. Natural and human-triggered avalanches are very likely during the storm.

Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Cornices

Large cornices have formed along ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect. Give them a wide berth from above and below.

Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2018 2:00PM