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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2020–Jan 16th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: North Columbia.

New wind slabs will form at higher elevations on Thursday, requiring careful route finding.

Confidence

High - The number, quality, or consistency of field observations is good, and supports our confidence.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: 5-15 cm of low density snow, strong wind from the south, alpine temperatures around -20 C.

THURSDAY: Flurries with 5-15 cm of low density snow, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

FRIDAY: Light flurries with mix of sun and cloud, light wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

SATURDAY: Light flurries with 5-10 cm of snow, moderate wind from the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity has quieted down over the past few days, but incoming weather will refresh the wind slab problem on north and east lee features. Last weekend there were a few notable reports of large persistent slab avalanches in the Selkirks and the northern tip of the Monashees (near Blue River and Valemount). The avalanches failed on a 100 cm deep surface hoar layer on north and east aspects between elevations of 1200 to 2100 m. Recent observations suggest this layer has trended towards being less reactive under the current conditions.

Snowpack Summary

Surface conditions are variable due to cold temperatures and shifting wind directions over the past few days, but expect fresh wind slabs to form on lee features on Thursday. A layer of surface hoar is now buried 80-150 cm below the surface and continues to be a concern certain parts of the Selkriks and the northern end of the Monashees. A facet/crust layer from late November lingers near the bottom of the snowpack and has occasionally been reactive in isolated shallow snowpack areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Moderate flurries and strong southwest wind will form fresh wind slabs in open terrain on Thursday, especially near ridgetops.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

A layer of surface hoar buried 80-150 cm below the surface could still be reactive around treeline elevations in the Selkirks and the northern tip of the Monashees.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3