Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Cascades - East.
You could still trigger avalanches in areas of drifted snow above treeline and near the Cascade Crest. In the Wenatchee Mountains and the eastern half of the zone, you can expect less dangerous conditions. Cooling temperatures and cloud cover will reduce the chance for wet avalanches.
Discussion
Anywhere from 2" to 8" of new snow may be found in the zone from the storm that started on Tuesday night. Warm temperatures and sun caused wet avalanches on sunny slopes on Thursday. Expect cooling temperatures, clouds, and southwest wind going into Friday. avalanche conditions are slowly easing.
A rain event in early February formed a prominent crust that you can still find near the surface sometimes with an adjacent layer of faceted snow. There are also a couple of layers of buried surface hoar or near-surface facets in the upper 3 ft of the snowpack. It's been a while since any avalanches were reported on these layers but you may still be able to find them, like in this profile from Dirtyface on March 3rd. Take the time to assess for the snowpack if venturing to higher elevations or more remote and committing terrain.
Snowpack Discussion
March 5, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)
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Ridgetop wind transport near Washington Pass. 3/4/20 Photo: Josh Hirshberg
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The beginning of March brought the first spring-like weather to the region. The days are getting longer and the sun (when it shines) has a noticeable effect on the snow. Alternating sun breaks and snowstorms is the theme of the week and the avalanche danger fluctuated just as fast as the weather. The southern zones and the east slopes have seen periods of light snowfall and significant sunshine while the northern zones and west slopes have had significant snowfall and occasional sun breaks. Above freezing temperatures were common at lower elevations throughout the region.Â
Last week in review: Temperatures were above freezing at most trailhead locations and concerns about the previous week’s buried surface hoar and weak layers were fading. Saturday temperatures plummeted as strong winds and new snow built wind slabs in most areas and drove the avalanche danger to considerable in almost every zone. Sunday’s calm weather and clearing in most areas helped stabilize wind slabs, but our attention turned to the strength of the sun and daytime warming. Lingering wind slabs and loose wet avalanches were forecast in every zone. For the remainder of the week, the avalanche problems in every zone were confined to the recent snow and each brief storm cycle had us thinking about wind slabs at upper elevations and loose wet avalanches from daytime warming and sunshine.
Spring isn’t actually here -- another round of cold temps and snow showers are on the way this weekend, but this past week’s oscillating weather is a good reminder to begin to shift our mindset. The sun is gaining strength, the days are getting longer, and we begin daylight savings this week. Even a brief period of sunshine can dramatically alter fresh, new snow. Check the mountain weather and avalanche forecasts for the most up to date info, enjoy the backcountry and let us know what you see out there!
--Peter Moore
Wet loose avalanche debris near Snow Lake. 3/5/20 Photo: Dallas Glass
Fresh cornice development from strong winds in the Stevens Pass backcountry. 3/4/20 Photo: Tom Whipple
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slabs are lingering at upper elevations near the Cascade Crest. Avalanches will be the biggest and easiest to trigger closest to the crest and at the highest elevations. Where the snow is still soft enough, you may see some very shallow fresh drifts from ongoing wind. Use caution as you enter wind-exposed slopes, near ridgelines and open terrain. Steer around areas of recent snow that are thickly drifted or have a punchy and hollow feel underfoot. Use small, inconsequential test slopes to check how these slabs are bonding. If you see signs of instability like shooting cracks or hear whumphing, avoid wind affected slopes 35 and steeper.
Release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Wind Slabs form in specific areas, and are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features. They can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind-scoured areas..
Wind Slab avalanche. Winds blew from left to right. The area above the ridge has been scoured, and the snow drifted into a wind slab on the slope below.
Wind slabs can take up to a week to stabilize. They are confined to lee and cross-loaded terrain features and can be avoided by sticking to sheltered or wind scoured areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1