Avalanche Forecast

Expect another quiet weather day in the Olympics Tuesday giving the already strong snowpack more time to heal. This should result in minimal avalanche hazard for most of the area. You could find a fresh dusting of snow in some locations by Tuesday morning, as upslope-winds ring out a few stray showers, but it shouldn’t be enough to pose a real treat. In general 3-8” of recent snow exists over the prominent 2/13 crust layers. Any unstable snow should be confined to this upper snowpack structure in most locations. Sunshine on Monday may have formed a new thin surface crust on slopes receiving direct sun. 

Even with generally quiet conditions, there are a couple of simple hazards to keep on your mind if you head out Tuesday. 

• With sunshine in the forecast, you could see wet snow develop at the surface, increasing the likelihood of loose wet avalanches. However, with such meager recent snow totals, any avalanche would be very small. New rollerballs are great clues that the snow surface is becoming wet and could be unstable. 

• Small thin wind slabs were reported over the weekend in isolated areas. These slabs should be gaining strength, but that doesn’t mean you couldn’t trigger one in the right piece of terrain. You’re most likely to find a lingering wind slab on shaded slopes and at higher elevations. Evaluate steep lines carefully for signs of wind affected snow. 

• Even small avalanches can pose serious consequences if they sweep you over a cliff, through rocks, or into a creek.

February 13, 2020 (The regional synopsis is updated every Thursday @ 6 pm)

Heart of Winter

The action has been non-stop so far in 2020 with several widespread natural avalanche cycles and a few recent close calls. The active weather pattern has kept us all on our toes, especially January’s barrage of storms bringing seemingly endless precipitation and dramatic snowpack growth. Ongoing snow, wind, and rain continued into February, and a not-so-ordinary atmospheric river event recently left its mark on the region. The second week of February brought the first stretch of high pressure in weeks, allowing the snowpack to gain strength and the avalanche danger to ease between storms. Now, in the heart of winter, we have a deep and healthy snowpack with snow depths throughout the Cascades and Olympics near 100% of normal. Looking ahead, each day brings new changes to the upper snowpack, and a dynamic pattern with direct action events (storm-driven avalanche danger) will likely be par for the course.

Atmospheric River Aftermath 

Model simulation for February 5-6th, 2020 showing an Atmospheric River (AR) with a less than common northwest-southeast orientation as it impacts the region. This orientation allowed for strong westerly winds and more favorable upslope flow than a more typical AR approaching from the southwest. Image courtesy of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, UC San Diego. (Link)

An atmospheric river impacted the region on February 5th-8th, causing a string of notable events. This storm favored the Central Cascades and Stevens Pass in particular, which experienced continuous heavy snow and rain for 86 hours, amounting to almost 70in of snow with about 7.5in of water equivalent. Not surprisingly, atmospheric rivers often go hand in hand with avalanche warnings, which were issued for 3 consecutive days at Stevens Pass from February 5th-7th, along with high danger in all other zones. Heavy rain fell at low elevations and even caused a significant mudslide on SR 410 between Enumclaw and Crystal Mountain, closing the road for 4 days and knocking out communications to 9 mountain weather stations for a week. As the AR exited the Northwest, and natural avalanche activity tapered off, conditions still remained touchy to human traffic on February 8th and 9th. Several triggered avalanches were reported that weekend, most notable of which was a close call near Mt. Baker Ski Area:

On February 8th, a skier was fully buried in an avalanche adjacent to Mt. Baker Ski Area. The avalanche was triggered by a traveler from a different party. Mt. Baker Ski Patrol was on the scene immediately, located the victim quickly, dug them out, and cleared the airway. The individual survived and reported no injuries. The avalanche was about 1ft deep and eventually broke up to 500ft wide. NNW aspect 5500ft. Photo: Mt. Baker Ski Patrol

Clear skies on Sunday, February 9th gave observers a chance to document the widespread avalanche cycle in the Stevens Pass zone that occurred February 5th-8th, including this view of crowns from large natural avalanches in the Berne Camp Chutes with Glacier Peak in the background. Photo: Matt Primomo

High Pressure before President’s Day Weekend

The week of February 10th brought the longest stretch of dry weather so far in 2020. A notable northwest wind event redistributed snow throughout the region and drove an isolated wind slab problem in most zones. Generally, it was the quietest few days avalanche-wise in weeks. However, a significant human-triggered avalanche occurred near White Pass on February 12th. Fortunately, no one was caught or injured. The incident provided a good reminder that even during periods of lower avalanche danger when avalanches are unlikely, outlier events can and do happen. The winter snowpack will always pose some level of uncertainty, and big triggers like cornice fall can produce surprising results.   

The crown of a human-triggered avalanche on a northeast aspect at 6700ft in the Hogsback area near White Pass. Two travelers unintentionally triggered a cornice, which dropped onto the slope below and triggered a very large avalanche. 2/12/20 Photo: White Pass Ski Patrol