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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2024–Mar 17th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Temperatures are forecast to remain above freezing overnight well in to the alpine.

Widespread large natural avalanches are expected.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity picked up Friday afternoon, with ongoing warming. We observed several large loose and wet slab avalanches from solar aspects. There was a notable size 3 persistent slab avalanche beside the Grizzly couloir.

Expect natural avalanches to increase in size and frequency with continued warming.

Natural avalanches on the persistent weak layer (over 1m deep) are expected to become widespread as the warmth penetrates deeper into the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Expect a very thin crust to form overnight that will break down quickly by mid morning from above zero temps and intense sun. When that happens the upper snowpack will turn to slop.

A previous suncrust, down 20-40cm, may make a sliding layer for wet slabs.

80-140cm of settled snow sits above a sugary facet layer. These facets are poorly bonded to the widespread, firm crust from Feb 3rd. This is a significant persistent weak layer and will be a concern for the foreseeable future.

Weather Summary

Temperatures continue to rise, with a mass of warm air driving freezing levels up above 3000m (mountain top) over the next couple days.

Tonight: Alpine low 6°C, with a temperature inversion. Light SE ridgetop winds. Freezing level (FZL): 700m, and a weak temp inversion.

Sun: Cloudy w/ sunny periods. Alpine high 6°C, (FZL) 3200m. Light SW winds.

Mon: Mainly cloudy. Low -1°C, High 3°C. FZL 2000m. Light SW winds.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain as temperatures increase.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Avoid traveling in runout zones. Avalanches have the potential to run to the valley floor.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

This crust-facet combo (Feb 3rd) was created by a rain event followed by an extended cold, clear period without snow earlier this month. 80-140cm now sits on this persistent weak layer. Natural avalanche activity is expected on this layer as warm temps continue to penetrate the snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Wet Slabs

If triggered, these slabs may provide enough mass to trigger the deeper Persistent Weak Layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5

Loose Wet

With above freezing temps into the alpine, loose snow avalanches are expected to run on all aspects as the snowpack warms.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5