Avalanche Forecast

On Sunday a field team witnessed a solar triggered size 2.5 loose avalanche on Ursus minor that narrowly missed sweeping the second member of a party of 2 over cliffs whilst they were ascending on the slope beside it (see photo).

Also on Sunday a size 2 slab avalanche was observed on a north aspect above the highway, expected to be triggered by cornice failure.

Up to 30cm of recent snow is well settled and remains dry on northerly aspects sitting over a thick crust below 1700m. A temperature/sun crust forms a widespread firm surface at low elevations and extends into the alpine on solar facing terrain.

The Feb 3rd weak layer is persisting down 80-140 cm deep. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Another dry and warm spell over the next two days will initiate another loose wet avalanche cycle as freezing levels (FZL) rise into the alpine. On Wednesday temps fall as the next storm arrives.

Mon: Sun/Cloud, alpine high 1°C, moderate SW winds, FZL 2400m.

Tues: Sun/Cloud alpine high 5°C, moderate SW winds gusting 75km/hr, FZL 2800m.

Wed: Cloudy, rain then snow up to 15cm, low -7°C moderate SW winds, FZL 2000m.

• Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
• Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.