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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 31st, 2024–Apr 1st, 2024
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Avoid large sun exposed slopes, the sunshine and warmth will initiated a natural loose avalanche cycle.

Scroll down to see a photo of a solar triggered near miss on Sunday.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday a field team witnessed a solar triggered size 2.5 loose avalanche on Ursus minor that narrowly missed sweeping the second member of a party of 2 over cliffs whilst they were ascending on the slope beside it (see photo).

Also on Sunday a size 2 slab avalanche was observed on a north aspect above the highway, expected to be triggered by cornice failure.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30cm of recent snow is well settled and remains dry on northerly aspects sitting over a thick crust below 1700m. A temperature/sun crust forms a widespread firm surface at low elevations and extends into the alpine on solar facing terrain.

The Feb 3rd weak layer is persisting down 80-140 cm deep. The mid and lower snowpack are well settled and strong.

Weather Summary

Another dry and warm spell over the next two days will initiate another loose wet avalanche cycle as freezing levels (FZL) rise into the alpine. On Wednesday temps fall as the next storm arrives.

Mon: Sun/Cloud, alpine high 1°C, moderate SW winds, FZL 2400m.

Tues: Sun/Cloud alpine high 5°C, moderate SW winds gusting 75km/hr, FZL 2800m.

Wed: Cloudy, rain then snow up to 15cm, low -7°C moderate SW winds, FZL 2000m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet
  • Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

Warm temperatures and strong solar radiation will melt the surface snow on solar facing slopes making it weak and easily triggered. These loose avalanches may start small but can gather surprising mass quickly. Avoid being under large slopes that are receiving strong sunshine.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2