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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2022–Feb 17th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

15-20 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh storm slabs which will be most reactive in wind affected terrain. 

Use small, low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Snow; 15-20 cm (rain below ~700 m) / Strong, west wind / Low of -1 / Freezing level rising to 1000 m.

THURSDAY: Flurries; 3-5 cm / Strong, west wind / High of 1 / Freezing level 1100 m.

FRIDAY: Flurries; 3-5 cm, and another 10-15 cm overnight / Strong, southwest wind / High of 2 / Freezing level 1200 m.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-5 cm / Light, west wind / High of -1 / Freezing level 700 m.

Avalanche Summary

Fresh storm slabs are expected to form at all elevations Wednesday night and will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

 

Snowpack Summary

15-20 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night is expected to form fresh storm slabs sitting on a thick rain crust at all elevations. The slabs will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

The 10-30 cm thick rain crust makes human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack very unlikely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures can trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

15-20 cm of forecast snow and strong west winds on Wednesday night are expected to form fresh storm slabs sitting on a thick rain crust at all elevations. The slabs will be most reactive in wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2