Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 11th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.

Chris Gooliaff,

Glacier.

A warm blast of air is heading our way Wednesday, and natural avalanche activity will peak with its arrival.

If you are out for a tour, tree-bombs and snow pillows popping off steep features will indicate tropical air is flowing through.

Summary

Weather Forecast

The storm severity has been downgraded, but the warming temp spike is still forecasted.

Tonight: Flurries, 5cm, Alp low -5*C, mod SW winds

Wed: Snow, 20cm, Alp high 0*C, fzl rising to 1800m, strong gusty SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 10cm, Alp high -1*C, fzl 1700m, mod/gusting strong W winds

Snowpack Summary

Warming temps, mod/strong SW winds, and ~15cm of new snow are combining with 60cm of low density snow to form new storm slabs. The Dec 1 crust (now buried up to 2m deep) remains dormant, despite having weak, sugary, faceted snow above and below it. The mid-lower snowpack is settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

We are in a natural avalanche cycle Tues afternoon, with numerous avalanches observed reaching out to their valley bottom fans from MacD and Tupper.

A natural sz3 avalanche from steep, unskiable terrain on Macdonald Tues morning made it the hwy, temporarily closing the road. Artillery control is on-going as the bulletin is being published.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Warm snowfall and winds have created storm slabs at all elevations. With warm temps peaking midday Wed, they will be particularly touchy to human triggers.

Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming slabs.
If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Dry

New, warm snow is falling on low density fluff. Steep glades and confined gullies will likely have loose sluffing, especially with human traffic.

Watch out for tree wells!

If triggered dry loose point releases can form deeper deposits in terrain traps.
Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 12th, 2022 4:00PM