Avalanche Forecast

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

A series of fronts moves inland creating warm, wet and windy conditions.

MONDAY NIGHT: 30-45cm overnight with strong southwest winds. Freezing levels rise to 2000m with precipitation falling as rain below. 

TUESDAY: 10-15cm above freezing level at 1800m. Strong southwest winds. 

Overnight, 20-40mm of rain with freezing levels peaking at 2500m.

WEDNESDAY: Heavy rain continues with 50-90mm and freezing levels around 2200m. Strong southwest winds. 

THURSDAY: The front exits leaving clearing skies and no precipitation expected. Freezing levels rise to 2500m over the day, with light easterly winds. 

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is expected at all elevations with the incoming precipitation and warm temperatures.

Small loose wet avalanches in the new snow and above the melt-freeze crust were reported on Sunday. Skier triggered wind slabs were reported on Sunday, failing on the recent rain crust on south facing treeline slopes. 

Heavy mixed precipitation and warm temperatures will rapidly create a wet and saturated snow surface with little cohesion. Below around 1200 m, the new snow is overlying a hard melt-freeze crust. Expect this storm to break down any surface crusts and saturate the snow below. 

Around 100 to 150 cm deep, a thin and hard melt-freeze crust may sit above sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these previous surfaces.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

• The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
• If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
• A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
• Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.