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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2021–Jan 1st, 2022
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The hazard will increase through the weekend, as wind, warm temps and new snow gradually load up starting zones.

Weather Forecast

Out with the cold for the New Year, as a low pressure system passing North pushes wind and snow our way.

Tonight: Cloudy periods, alpine low -21*C, light West ridgetop winds

Sat: Cloudy with isolated flurries, high -13*C, strong SW winds

Sun: Flurries, 8cm, low -14*C, high -12*C, moderate SW wind

Mon: Flurries, 7cm, low -13*C, high -10*C, light S wind

Snowpack Summary

Plenty of snow available for wind transport. The upper snowpack is cold and facetted, with small pockets of windslab (5-30cm thick) - these are at all elevations, along ridge-crests, and in open features exposed to down-flowing winds. The Dec 1 crust is buried 70-120cm, with faceting of the snow above and below (especially in shallow areas).

Avalanche Summary

Tree bombs triggered a few small loose dry avalanches, and one size 2.0 windslab on solar aspedts Friday.

A cornice fall triggered a small (size 1.5) windslab on Connaught on Thursday, and in the highway corridor a large (size 2.0) windslab slid on the S face of Tupper.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Expect rapid development of fresh windslabs with strong South winds forecast for Saturday.

If triggered, these slabs could possibly step down to the Dec 1 crust, approx 70-120cm deep.

  • Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading could create slabs.
  • Watch for signs of instability such as whumpfing, or cracking.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Dry

The upper snowpack continues to loos cohesion from cold temps.  Expect sluffing in steep terrain, particularly where not wind effected.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 1.5