Avalanche Forecast

High - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

MONDAY NIGHT: Up to 5-10cm of snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Alpine high of -8 with light southwest winds.

TUESDAY: Chance of flurries with light southerly winds. Alpine high of -12. 

WEDNESDAY: Clearing skies, isolated flurries. Light southwest winds. Alpine high of -15. 

THURSDAY: Light snowfall begins in the morning with increasing southwesterly winds. Temperatures begin to rise with alpine highs of -12. 

On Sunday, several natural and skier triggered slabs were observed in wind loaded features at treeline and above to size 2. 

Cornice falls have triggered numerous slabs this week, as they land on the slopes below. Navigate around cornices carefully, both on ridgelines and on the slopes below them with care - they are able to effect deeply buried weak layers. 

Several large and destructive persistent slab avalanches have been naturally and skier triggered in the Selkirks over the last week up to size 3.5, failing on the early December crust/facet interface. Each had wide propagation and ran several hundred metres. The avalanches were all triggered in a rocky and thin area.

Up to 40cm of low density storm snow has fallen this week and has been redistributed into wind loaded features at treeline and above by strong southwest winds. 

A layer of weak surface hoar crystals can be found 30-50cm deep in sheltered terrain features at alpine and treeline elevations, and in open features like cut blocks below treeline. 

The crust formed by the early December rain event sits 100-150cm deep and is found up to 2400 m. Faceted grains sit above, creating a weak interface that is still reactive to human triggers. This layer is most reactive at treeline, and in areas where the snowpack thins and the weak interface is much closer to the surface. This layer has the potential to produce large and destructive avalanches if triggered. Natural and skier triggered avalanches have occurred on this layer in the last week, to size 3.5 

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Avoid convexities, steep unsupported terrain and rocky outcroppings.