Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
There is quite a bit of variability in the forecast models right now.
If the current forecast holds true, expect avalanches to be reaching valley bottom runouts Monday.
Weather Forecast
Expect the incoming storm to start picking up steam tonight.
Tonight: Periods of snow, 12cm. Freezing level 1200m. Wind SW-25 km/h
Mon: Snow, 14cm. Fzl 1500m. Wind SW 25 gusting to 55 km/h
Tues: Cloudy with clear periods, no precip. Fzl 600m. Wind mainly light with moderate gusts.
Snowpack Summary
The upper snowpack is settling and rounding with warm temps and mod/strong SW winds. The Jan11 surface hoar layer has been observed up to 4-6mm around treeline, and is now down 20-40cm. The Dec 1 crust is buried up to 2m deep with weak, faceted snow above and below it.
Avalanche Summary
No new avalanches were observed in the highway corridor today.
Last week's storm triggered numerous very large avalanches up to size 4.0. There is potential for a repeat of this event if enough load is added with the storm incoming tonight and tomorrow.
Confidence
Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
We are currently forecast to receive ~30cm of snow in a 24 hour period, accompanied by warm temps and strong winds. Expect rapidly developing storm slabs. Keep in mind the Jan 11 SH is preserved in isolated locations at treeline.
- Be alert to slab conditions that change with elevation.
- Watch for fresh storm slabs on exposed lee slopes and open areas at all elevations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3.5
Persistent Slabs
The New Year Facets may wake-up if a large storm slab avalanche is triggered onto it. Minimize your exposure to overhead avalanche terrain.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
- Avoid thin, rocky or unsupported slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 4