Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2015 8:17AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Wet.

ali haeri, Parks Canada

Glacier.

It's raining right now at Rogers Pass and freezing levels are suppose to rise by tomorrow. With all the new snow, wind and the buried surface hoar layers, it may be best to wait until things cool down before heading out in the backcountry.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Pineapple Express weather system that keeps on giving. Today its in the form of rain and warm temperatures. Actual rain amounts have exceeded forecast amounts. The forecast is for the mild air to be even milder by tomorrow with freezing levels reaching between 2300m-3000m. Precipitation is supposed to taper off by this afternoon.

Snowpack Summary

45cm of recent storm snow with up to 11mm of rain overtop below 2000m so far. The Jan 15 surface hoar is buried 60-90cm and recent snowpack stability tests indicate it is likely to be triggered and propagate. The Dec 17 surface hoar/ crust complex is down 130-180cm.

Avalanche Summary

Yesterday, natural avalanches and artillery control produced numerous size 2.0 to 3.0 avalanches within the highway corridor. Backcountry observations are limited at this time but expect a natural cycle to have occurred.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

We have 40cm of recent storm snow with very mild temperatures. Winds are strong in the alpine and its raining below 2000m.

Minimize exposure to avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Mid January surface hoar layer is now buried 60-100cm deep. This layer is likely to become more reactive with the current warm conditions and rain we are receiving.

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Loose Wet

Up to 11mm of rain so far and currently 0 degrees at 2000m. Loose avalanches may also trigger slabs on deeper instabilities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2015 8:00AM