Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

A frontal system crossing the region on Wednesday night will bring 10-35 cm of snow, strong wind, and mild temperatures.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Heavy snow with 5-20 cm (heaviest accumulations along the western side of the range), strong southwest wind with gusts to 100 km/h, freezing level climbing to 1300 m overnight.

THURSDAY: Snow continues with another 5-15 cm throughout the day, strong southwest wind with gusts to 100 km/h, freezing level reaches 1500 m.

FRIDAY: Unsettled weather between storms with flurries bringing roughly 5 cm of snow, strong southwest wind with gusts to 60 km/h, freezing level drops to valley bottom with treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: The next front approaches with 5-10 cm of snow possible by the evening, strong southwest wind, and freezing level climbing to 1500 m.

Over the past week there have been several reports of unstable storm slabs. While these instabilities have likely settled, the incoming weather will produce new storm and wind slab problems. 

There have been no reports of avalanches on persistent weak layers this season, although reports are limited, and we strongly encourage people to share observations on the Mountain Information Network. 

A frontal system will bring 10-35 cm of new snow to the region by Thursday evening. The heaviest accumulations will likely be around Pine Pass, the McGregor range, and around McBride. Rising freezing levels will result in rain at lower elevations and heavy snow at upper elevations. The eastern side of the Rockies will receive less snow, but strong wind will likely form wind slabs in steep leeward terrain.

Recent observations suggest treeline snow depths are around 80-140 cm with very little snow below 1400-1600 m. A series of storms over the past few weeks delivered about 40-80 cm of snow, which sits above an early season crust(s). Reports indicate the snow has generally bonded well to the early season crusts. Exceptions may be shallow alpine slopes along the eastern side of the Rockies towards Jasper.

• Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Remember that the snowpack will be significantly different at higher elevations than lower down.