Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Corner Brook, Gros Morne, Long Range Mountains, Northern Peninsula.
Human triggered avalanches are likely in wind exposed terrain where there is dry snow on the surface.
In sheltered terrain and where there is a surface crust, avalanche danger will be low.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
Looking forward to Saturday, we expect that it will be likely for humans to trigger avalanches in wind-loaded terrain.
On Friday, it is expected that a widespread loose wet avalanche cycle occurred during the heavy rain.
On Thursday in the Bluey area, north of Gros Morne, our field team observed a few small (size 1) wind slab avalanches in cross-loaded gully features.
Snowpack Summary
Expect to find 5-20 cm of fresh snow on the surface. A significant amount of rain soaked the upper snowpack on Friday, so the new snow will likely cover a frozen crust or wet snow.
South and west winds are likely forming deeper pockets of reactive wind slab on north and east facing slopes.
The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and settled.
In wind sheltered, mid elevation areas, average snow depth is 100-130 cm. Wind exposed coverage is extremely variable, with features that catch windblown snow potentially being several meters deep. With recent moist, dense snow sticking well to most aspects, you will find shallow snow areas, but very little ground is visible.
Weather Summary
Friday Night
Cloudy with up to 3 cm of snow, pockets of 10 cm over the highest hills. 40 to 60 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline low -14 °C.
Saturday
Mostly cloudy, possible clear periods in the afternoon. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, shifting to 50 to 60 km/h south or southeast in the afternoon. Treeline high -7 °C.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with light flurries and moderate rain (10-20 mm). 60 km/h south ridgetop wind easing to 40 km/h southwest in the afternoon/evening. Treeline high 3 °C, low -5 °C.
(Possibly northeast wind and 10-20 cm of snow in the northern half of the forecast area, with some uncertainty on where the dividing line will be).
Monday
Partly cloudy with 3-8 cm of snow, pockets of 15 cm over the highest hills. 60 km/h west ridgetop wind with higher gusts overnight, easing to 30-40 km/h for the daytime period. Treeline low -15 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been affected by wind.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
- Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
Avalanche Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind slab danger will depend on how much dry snow fell after the temperature dropped on Friday. This may be hard to determine from lower elevations, but at hilltops, there is likely plenty of snow available to be blown into reactive slabs.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5