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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 10th, 2017–Apr 11th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

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Watch for recent and new wind slabs on lee slopes in steep terrain mainly above treeline. Sun breaks can quickly create loose wet avalanche conditions on steep solar slopes. Give cornices a wide safety margin.

Detailed Forecast

A relative break between systems should be seen most of Tuesday. Clouds should increase and SE winds should begin to pick up mainly in the south Cascades as the next system approaches from the south in the afternoon. Rain or snow from this system should spread north over the Olympics and Cascades on Tuesday night.

Watch for recent and new wind slab mainly on NW-SE slopes above treeline. Keep an eye out for firmer wind transported snow that is a sign of wind slab.

The sun will be out or there will at least be solar effects on Tuesday and loose wet avalanches will be emphasized on solar slopes. But watch for surface wet snow deeper than few inches on all aspects. Initial rollerballs or small natural releases signal a developing loose wet avalanche danger. Initial small loose wet slides may entrain snow in steeper sun exposed terrain and cause large loose wet avalanches.

Recent cornices are very large and resulting slab avalanches are dangerous and unpredictable. Five people were tragically killed by a cornice release in BC on Saturday. Give cornices a wide berth if traveling along ridge-lines and avoid slopes below large cornices. See a blog post regarding cornices here.

Snowpack Discussion

Weather and Snowpack

Heavy rain in mid March has left behind a well consolidated old snowpack with one or more strong melt freeze crusts in the upper snowpack.

A series of strong spring storms was seen last week. For the 4 days ending Saturday morning the Mt Baker area received over 5 inches of water equivalent. Most or all of this fell as snow near and above treeline.

A low pressure system moved north along the coast on Friday. About 4-9 inches of snow were seen at some NWAC stations near and west of the crest. Very strong winds built large wind slabs and fresh cornices during sustained SE-SW winds averaging over 35 mph with gusts over 80 mph! These winds were so strong that wind slabs were less widespread and formed lower on leeward slopes than typical.

A calmer, cooler pattern was seen Saturday and Sunday with about 3-7 inches of snow each day at a few locations near and west of the crest and light amounts of new snow otherwise. A period of fair weather and sunshine or filtered sun Sunday allowed for more consolidation and some surface snow melt on all but steep shaded slopes in higher terrain.  

A front and upper trough is crossing the Northwest on Sunday night and Monday. This will cause moderate southwest to west alpine winds and up to a few inches of snow to higher elevations at further cool temperatures. This may build some fresh wind slab above treeline.

Recent Observations

North

NWAC's Lee Lazzara traveled to the Hidden Lakes Peak area in the North Cascades Sunday, 4/9. Recent storm snow ranged from about 1 foot near treeline to about 2 feet above treeline. Recent wind slabs were noted as well as some fresh wind transported snow on many cross loaded features. Storm snow remained cold and dry on steeper shaded terrain at higher elevations. Wind slabs appeared to require a bit more settling time before venturing into steeper committed terrain.  Solar affects caused many natural small loose wet avalanches on steep solar slopes.

Central

The Alpental pro-patrol in a pit on the upper mountain reported alternating layers of stable crusts and wet snow in the upper snow pack on Friday. Below about 3500 feet, the snowpack was characterized by deep layers of large grains of wet snow.

A report via the NWAC Observations page for Friday indicated easily triggered, loose wet avalanches on Tonga Ridge west of Stevens Pass on Friday.

NWAC's Jermey Allyn was in the Alpental Valley, Sunday 4/9. Recent storm snow of about 6-8 inches was hanging in there on shaded terrain, over a very strong crust. On all but the steep shaded terrain at high elevations, shallow surface snow became wet and cohesive by midday as solar affects took hold. There was no evidence of wind slabs in this terrain, but no observations were made in true above treeline zones. Less storm snow and lighter winds have been the rule in the passes, however, so wind slabs are less likely in these zones. 

South

NWAC's Matt Schonwald was in the Cement Basin area near Crystal Mountain on Sunday. North slopes had about 25-30 cm of F snow well bonded to an underlying crust, with shallower recent snow on other aspects. Warming was helping settle recent snow but was creating loose wet surface snow on W facing slopes.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.