South Coast

The Avalanche Danger is expected to peak on Saturday night. If heavy snowfall and/or strong winds persist into Sunday, you should consider the Avalanche Danger to be HIGH.

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Sunday

An unstable pacific air mass will continue to bring snowfall to the region. On Sunday, expect up to 20cm of snow with extreme southwest winds easing to moderate throughout the day. On Monday and Tuesday, a benign northwesterly flow will bring a mix of sun and cloud, and moderate northwesterly ridgetop winds. Freezing levels should hover around 800m for the forecast period.

I expect a healthy round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind forecast for Saturday and Sunday. The timing of the natural avalanche activity is tough to pin-down, although weather models suggest touchiest conditions will develop around midnight on Saturday. Even though the storm is expected to taper-off on Sunday, I would have serious concerns for ongoing human triggering of new storm slabs, especially in higher-elevation, wind-exposed terrain.

By Sunday morning I would expect up to 40cm of new snow to have fallen. Strong southwest winds will have redistributed the new snow into much deeper and potentially reactive storm slabs in lee terrain. These new accumulations will add to the 150cm of recent storm snow that has fallen in the high alpine over the last week. A hard rain crust can be found in the upper snowpack up to the 2200m elevation. Recent tests suggest an improving bond at this interface; however, I'd dig and test this layer before committing to any steeper lines.