Avoid steep sun-exposed slopes during the heat of the day. Don't let your guard down with warm temperatures and sunny skies.
Confidence
Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Change is coming on Tuesday evening and then very wet on Wednesday - Thursday. TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain beginning in the evening / High temperatures to +6 Celsius / Strong southerly winds (50-70 Km/hr) / Freezing level around 2800 m. WEDNESDAY: Rain (60-100mm) / Strong southerly winds becoming moderate / Freezing level around 2200m. THURSDAY: Rain (30-50mm) / Moderate southeasterly winds / Freezing level around 1900 m.
Avalanche Summary
No new observed.
Snowpack Summary
The snow from late last week (15-25cm) has consolidated well at treeline and below. This makes 50-70 cm of cumulative storm snow which so far has been bonding well to a knife hard crust buried Feb 3rd. That said, recent snowpack tests near Cypress ski area gave sudden planar, propagation-likely results down 70cm on the Feb 3rd widespread crust layer. This may become a sliding layer on Wednesday with the heavy rain.In the alpine, where all of the precipitation has fallen as snow, the storm slabs have taken longer to settle out and still are a concern: Dig down to test the bond of the more recent snow layers. The mid and lower snowpack are settled and well bonded with the average snowpack depth at treeline 250-300 cm.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.