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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2016–Feb 28th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Watch the winds! Avalanche danger could be higher at treeline in the parts of the region that see moderate winds. Back off if you notice blowing or drifting snow.

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: flurries starting overnight and becoming light snow through the day with accumulations of up to 10cm expected, light to moderate southwesterly winds, 1400m freezing level. MONDAY: another 10cm overnight with flurries through the day, light southerly winds, 1200m freezing level. TUESDAY: snow starting overnight with up to 10cm possible by the end of the day, light to moderate southerly winds, 1200m freezing level.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Friday.  Earlier in the week a few size 1-2 wind slabs were triggered naturally and by skiers, however this activity seems to have slowed. Cornices are still large and fragile, and may fail under the weight of a person.

Snowpack Summary

Cornices are large and weak.  A refreeze crust may cap moist snow at and below treeline and on solar slopes in the alpine. Older wind slabs are gaining strength, but may still be reactive to human triggers, especially in steep lee features in the alpine, where they could also be triggered naturally by cornice fall. Several crusts can be found in the upper meter of the snowpack depending on aspect and elevation. A layer of surface hoar buried in early January can be found down 1-2 m. In most places it is thought to be capped by a thick, widespread crust.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.