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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2012–Jan 5th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Thursday: 10-20cm of snow with freezing levels around 1000m and moderate to strong westerly winds. Friday: Generally dry with light to moderate westerly winds and freezing levels remaining around 1000m. Saturday: Light amounts of new snow possible with freezing levels around 1000m.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle is underway and wind and storm slabs, as well as deeply buried persistent weaknesses will remain sensitive to human triggers after the storm dissipates. Three separate serious incidents that are relevant for the Sea-to-Sky region occurred on Monday afternoon in the Duffey Lake and Southern Chilcotin areas of the South Coast Inland region. All of incident sites had similar terrain characteristics with north through east facing steep treeline features. Two of the avalanches likely involved the mid-December persistent weakness, while the third was reported to have released on basal facets in a shallow snowpack area with a 50-75cm depth. All of the avalanches resulted in serious injury and at least two of them were human-triggered.

Snowpack Summary

As of Monday afternoon, most areas got 30-60cm of new snow while some immediate coastal areas received over a metre, under extreme southerly winds with freezing levels peaking at around 1800m in the afternoon. Slabs overlaying various old snow surfaces, including crusts, facets, and surface hoar, buried mid-December are primed for avalanches in many parts of the region. The surface hoar is lurking generally down 80-100cm in sheltered treeline areas and below. In exposed treeline and alpine areas, weak facets with associated crusts are now down generally around a metre, but wind-loading has resulted in highly variable slab thicknesses. A recently buried thin hard rain crust that extends into alpine elevations is also providing a poor bond to overlying deep hard wind slabs. Basal facets remain a concern in shallow snowpack areas, especially where the snowpack is overlaying summer firn on slopes that have already produced deep persistent slab avalanches and have been reloaded.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.