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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2016–Jan 15th, 2016

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Coast.

Touchy soft slabs can likely be found in wind loaded features in the alpine or around convexities at tree line and below.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Friday: Mainly clear, no precipitation is expected, light westerly winds and a freezing level of 500m. Saturday: Light snow starting overnight with up to 10cm expected by the end of the day, light to moderate southwesterly winds, and a freezing level between 700 and 1000m. Sunday: Snow forecast to continue overnight with up to another 20cm by the end of the day, light to moderate southerly winds, and a freezing level of between 700 and 1500m.

Avalanche Summary

The majority of the recent avalanche activity has been reported from areas that saw more snow through the last storm. Explosive control produced avalanches up to size 2 failing on the layer of buried surface hoar on Wednesday. In areas where a storm slab has not yet developed the surface snow is sluffing fast and far.

Snowpack Summary

Recent snowfalls have been highly variable across the region. Northwest of Pemberton up to 40cm of snow fell. Further inland the storm only brought between 15 and 25cm to the Duffy and Coquihalla. This snow is now settling into a soft slab that overlies a crust on steep solar aspects, or a layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations. Moderate to strong southwest through southeast winds have been loading lee features at treeline and in the alpine. 10 to 15 cm deeper is a second buried weak layer again consisting of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine or well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas that may be more faceted. At lower elevations below treeline recent rain may have saturated the upper snowpack.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.