The hazard may go higher than forecast on solar aspects if the sun comes out and the temperature goes higher than expected. Pay careful attention temperatures and cornice hazard.
Confidence
Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Synopsis: A weak ridge of high pressure sits over the forecast area and should block out any major precipitation for the next 2 days.Tonight: Clear periods, no precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 100 metres, winds light, from the north.Saturday: Cloudy with trace a of precipitation, freezing level around 1300 metres, ridge top winds should be light from the south east.Sunday: Cloudy periods, trace of precipitation in the forecast, freezing level around 1800 metres, light ridge top winds from the south west.Monday: Cloudy with flurries, freezing level around 2000 metres, winds light to moderate from the south.
Avalanche Summary
A few reports of skier controlled and skier accidental avalanches on north aspects from yesterday. Also reports of solar sluffing on steep south aspects. Conditions seem to be improving, but It may be too early to be stepping out to bigger objectives.
Snowpack Summary
Between 30and 50 cm of 7-day storm snowstorm snow has increased the slab sitting on the persistent weak layers. Strong westerly winds continue to form wind slabs on lee slopes. The two persistent weak layers that remain a concern are:The March weak layer. A combination of hard wind-scoured slab surfaces in exposed terrain, facets and/or surface hoar in sheltered and north aspects, and sun crust on steep solar aspects and is generally widespread throughout the forecast region. This layer is now down between 70 and 80cm from the surface.A late January/early February crust/facet/surface hoar combo that is still showing up in snowpack tests with hard shear tests, now down 150 to 250cm from the surface. Recent warming temperatures will be good for bonding above and below this layer, but a sudden increase in load, a cornice failure, or a big rain event could "wake up" this layer and result in large avalanches. There are also basal facets at the bottom of the snowpack from cold clear weather in early December, but for the most part these have not been a concern, however, recently, large avalanches have scoured some avalanche tracks down to the basal facets and even to the ground.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.