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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 12th, 2013–Jan 13th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Mainly sunny with cloudy periods in the afternoon. Temperatures should remain cool with alpine highs near -6. Winds are moderate from the northwest. Monday: Mainly sunny with possible valley fog. An above freezing level develops through the day between 1500 and 2500 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the northwest. Tuesday: Mainly sunny with possible valley fog. The above freezing layer strengthens with alpine temperatures rising to +5. Winds are moderate to strong from the northwest.  

Avalanche Summary

There was a size 2 accidentally triggered slab avalanche in the Spearhead Range on Thursday. A thin wind slab was triggered near ridge top on a relatively low-angle slope, which then stepped down to a weak layer approximately 100 cm deep lower on the slope. This avalanche is suspected to have released on the early January surface hoar layer.

Snowpack Summary

The snow surface consists of thin new wind slabs, a sun crust, dry snow, or feathery surface hoar depending on aspects and elevation. Below this 40-70 cm of storm snow sits on a weak layer of surface hoar, facetted snow, and/or a crust. Snowpack tests on Wednesday continued to yield easy to moderate sudden planar, or "pops", results on this interface. No significant weaknesses have been reported recently below this in the mid snowpack layers. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer exists, which is now unlikely to be triggered, except perhaps by heavy triggers in steep, shallow, rocky terrain where more facetting has taken place.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.