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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2019–Jan 11th, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

The Northwest Coast is in the cross hairs of a Pacific fire hose. Intense precipitation, extreme winds and warm temperatures will prime the snowpack for avalanches. It's a good time to hit the ski hill, or the hot springs!

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Forecast freezing levels and temperature inversions are tricky to forecast. Precipitation may exist as snow, rain or freezing rain, depending on elevation.THURSDAY NIGHT - Snow, 15-30 cm / south winds, 50-90 km/h / alpine low temperature near 0 / freezing level 1200 mFRIDAY - Snow mixed with rain 20-30 cm, 10-15 cm overnight / south winds, 40-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near +1 / Freezing level 1500 m / possible alpine temperature inversionSATURDAY - Snow mixed with rain, 10-15 cm, 5-10 cm overnight / south winds, 30-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near +1 / freezing level 1500 m / possible alpine temperature inversionSUNDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / south winds, 30-50 km/h / alpine high temperature near +1 / freezing level 1500 m / possible alpine temperature inversion

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle is expected throughout the day on Friday.A few explosives triggered avalanches to size 2 were reported in the region on Thursday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of new snow Thursday night adds to the growing pile of storm snow. Strong to extreme winds, warm temperatures and ongoing snowfall/rainfall will be promoting widespread slab formation.Approximately 60-100 cm of recent storm snow sits on a melt-freeze crust at treeline and below. In some sheltered areas, this snow is sitting on a weak layer of surface hoar (feathery crystals). For most of the region, a weak layer of facets (sugary snow) buried in early December exists down 180-250 cm. It is likely that this layer was the culprit of a large, remotely-triggered avalanche on December 30 near Terrace, described in a MIN report here. The likelihood of triggering this layer is decreasing, but it could be triggered by humans in shallow snowpack areas. The potential may also exist for storm slab avalanches to step down to this layer, resulting in large avalanches.In the northern part of the region, near Ningunsaw pass, a couple of weak layers of surface hoar may be found that were buried near the end of December. Expect to find these layers about down approximately 100 to 180 cm.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.