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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 5th, 2019–Feb 6th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Avalanche activity is still happening.  Good skiing can be found at tree line and below.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Wednesday and Thursday are to bring high temperatures of -17c and lows of -25c.  Wednesday is also forecast to be mainly sunny with light North winds, then clouding over on Thursday.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.5 slab on an East aspect bowl on Mt. Murray.One size 2.5 slab on an E aspect starting in the alpine on Snow peakSeveral loose dry up to size 1.5 were also observed on East aspects.The sun is starting to have a punch so it is likely that some of these recent slides are caused by solar radiation.

Snowpack Summary

35-45cm of low density snow at tree line sits on the surface while in the alpine, wind slabs cover most of the surface. The mid pack is strong at all elevations but sits on top of  weak basal facets that cover the bottom 50cm.  This basal layer is still a concern especially where the snowpack is under 120cm.  Any avalanche triggered in the upper snow pack has the potential to trigger this lower weakness.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.