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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2019–Jan 3rd, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

The incoming storm is expected to initiate a significant natural avalanche cycle.Highway 93N will be closed from the Saskatchewan Crossing to 10km South of the Icefields center on Thursday at 07:00 hrs. Expected opening by Friday evening.

Weather Forecast

A series of fronts moving inland from the central coast will give heavy snowfall and strong winds to our area. Thursday: Up to 35cm of snow will fall with strong to extreme south west winds. Alpine temps will be high -5, Low -7.Friday: 15cm of snow with ongoing wind.A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow and strong SW winds will build fresh windslabs in open terrain and storm slabs in sheltered areas.  Expect natural activity to increase. The Dec. 11th layer (surface hoar and facets) persists down 50-110cm, and has been gaining strength but continues to produce avalanches in shallow snowpack areas.

Avalanche Summary

A skier triggered and several natural slabs were noted today on NE aspect slopes in thin shallow snowpack area's around the Columbia icefields. A field trip into the parkers area today noted wide spread wind effect in any open terrain, with sustrugi forming in open TL features and above.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.