Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Wednesday

Wednesday: increased cloud with light precipitation developing in the late afternoon becoming moderate in some areas overnight / moderate southerly winds / freezing level at 2800m Thursday: light precipitation / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m Friday: a mix of sun and cloud / moderate westerly winds / freezing level at 1700m

Over the past few days, many small and large wet loose snow avalanches occurred in response to daytime warming and direct solar radiation. Numerous size 2-3.5 slab avalanches also occurred on sun-exposed aspects, with more isolated activity on shaded aspects. One report indicated a wet loose snow avalanche that triggered a slab that most likely ran on the mid-February surface hoar.

Up to 80cm of snow overlies a weak layer of facetted crystals sitting on a crust in the alpine and at treeline. This layer still reacts to snowpack testing producing sudden, "pop" results. Recent reports of remotely triggered avalanches are noteworthy and suggest the problem will not heal quickly. Wind slabs are reported to be isolated to the immediate lee of exposed features at high elevations. Spring-like, moist snow exists on all south facing slopes as well as many north facing areas with limited crust recovery developing at night. There is still concern for the mid-February buried surface hoar layer that is down about 140-220 cm. Avalanches releasing on this layer are a low probability-high consequence situation. Cornices in the region are very large. With warmer temperatures, and longer periods of direct solar radiation, these may become weak and fail. They could provide a large enough trigger to release these deep layers on slopes below. Cornices are large and sagging due to recent warm temperatures.