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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 23rd, 2013–Dec 24th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A return to a drier, colder, northwesterly flow will occur tonight. This is forecast to persist briefly until the next system hits the NW of the province. This system resembles the last with precipitation expected to spill over into the Northern Columbias bringing 10 to 25cm of snow through the forecast period.Tonight and Tuesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing levels will remain at valley bottom. Winds will be moderate gusting to strong from the west.Wednesday: Expect light snow through the day and overnight. Ridge winds will be moderate gusting to extreme from the west.Thursday: Light snow will continue with heavier accumulations expected in the north of the region. Freezing levels will rise to 1000m. Winds will be moderate from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

Explosive control work over the weekend produced a couple of avalanches to size 2.5 on upper elevation N through NE facing slopes that likely failed on the basal facets near the ground.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack depths at treeline are between 75 - 120cm. Alpine depths vary between 100 - 180cm. We're dealing with a complex snowpack in the Cariboo Mountains at this time. See this video for a great visual.The upper snowpack is a mixed bag of soft storm slabs and wind slabs, sitting above a variety of week old surfaces. Previously warm temps and as much as 85cm of snow through December have combined to form a cohesive mid pack on top of the November 28 surface hoar and facets. Snowpack tests are showing this layer pop with medium loads which indicates the potential for human triggering. There's not a whole lot of snow between riders and sugary snow (facets) near the base of the snowpack. In some places this crust facet combo is failing naturally. As a result you'll notice that there is a Persistent Slab problem on the front page. Human triggering of large destructive avalanches is possible at this time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.