Avalanche forecast

Craigieburn Range

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Gale Northwest winds have had a real impact on the snowpack. Now, with the Southerly change, the hazard has moved to the Northern 1/2 aspects.

Super conservative approach is recommended in the next few days, if venturing into steeper terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    With the wind change to South/Southwest these slabs will swing around the compass to Northern1/2 aspects. With a lot of snow available to transport, these slabs will could grow quite large and be on top of a wind polished surface. With such strong winds Slabs will form much lower down slope from the ridge. Watch for dense pockets of wind blown snow if in terrain above 30degrees, above 1600m. These Wind Slabs could be touchy and have the potential to run a long way very quickly.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1

    Unexpected bluebird day. Solar input into fresh snow will increase the risk of Loose Wet avalanches. Be aware of steep sunny faces in the heat of the day. Rollerballing is the first sign that the surface is warmingup. Be mindful of steep sunny slopes above especially when travelling uphill.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    With the cold Southerly change and new cold snow, expect steep slopes, which are sheltered from the wind, to produce Loose Dry avalanches. Although not a lot of snow in the forecast, the potential for Loose Dry avalanches to run a long way. Even a small 'Sluff' in the current terrain could be less than optimal.

Recent Avalanche Activity

Multiple Wind Slabs triggered with explosives today during control work at Porters and Mt Olympus. 31/07.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Coverage is patchy with significant pockets of wind deposited snow all the way through to very thin patches. Gale Northwest winds have are hammered the snowpack during this latest storm. The Southwest change began around 19:00 Friday evening and began snowing with cold dry snow. This new Southerly snow will be deposited onto a very wind polished surface. Fortunately the freezing level did not climb much above 1900m during this storm.

Mountain Weather

Saturday: Isolated showers and snow to 400m, clearing to fine before dawn. Southerly winds easing in the morning. Freezing level 500m rising to 900m in the afternoon.

Sunday: Partly cloudy. Westerly winds increasing in the afternoon. Freezing level 1700m rising to 2000m in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Wind stripped areas and exposed ridges will be very firm. Ice axe and Crampons are recommended if venturing out.

Forecast Confidence

Low

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to a limited number of field observations.
  • We are uncertain about forecast snowfall amounts.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

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