Avalanche forecast

Craigieburn Range

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Complicated weather creates a complicated snowpack.

Weather forecast is for some heavy snow overnight then turning to turn to rain later in the day. Rain on new snow creates a Loose Wet hazard.

Stay tuned for any updates throughout this storm.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    If the forecast heavy snow arrives overnight, this will increase the hazard of Storm Slabs. Once we see more than 15cm then Storm Slabs will be possible on all steep terrain above 30 degrees. This is all dependent on the pulse of cold air which is forecast to arrive and produce heavy snowfall. If this cold air does not arrive then this hazard will not be found. Storm Slabs usually occur within the storm snow on weak layers created during the storm when temperature or humidity changes.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    An rapidly rising freezing level and possible rain mean Loose Wet avalanches likely especially if the forecast rain falls on new snow. With an already very moist snowpack, any rain will increase the hazard with extra load and potential lubrication of the surface below.

  • Wet Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1.5

    Wet Slabs occur when the weight of the snowpack suddenly increases and overloads any weak layers on or near the ground surface. This occurs with a very rapid increase of temperatures or the sudden onset of heavy rain. These Wet Slabs are very hard to predict so avoid any avalanche terrain should heavy rain begin to fall.

Recent Avalanche Activity

2 small (Sz1) Wind Slabs trigged by explosives at Broken River, East asp , around 1700m, 24/08

Nil in the past 24hrs.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Snow coverage across the forecast area is super variable. Up to 150cm in some areas down to rime covered rocks. A very 'spring like' snowpack exists at the moment with a few crusts remaining with patches of moist, windblown snow scattered in sheltered zones away from the Westerly 1/2 winds.

Mountain Weather

Thursday: Rain, heavy at times about the Divide, clearing north of Arthur's Pass and about the foothills in the evening. Snow lowering to 400m before dawn, affecting high-level roads, then lifting to 1800m from the north in the afternoon and early evening. Easterly winds turning Northerly and rising to gale in the afternoon. Freezing level 1200m rising to around 2000m in the evening.

Friday: Heavy rain, with snow lowering to 1200m for a time, easing to a few showers in the evening. Further East, a few morning showers, then fine. Gale Northwest winds. Freezing level around 2000m.

Sliding Danger

Ice axe and crampons are highly recommended as rain will now turn to ice at low to mid elevations. Ski Crampons will be required if adventuring on skis or snowboard.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain if precipitation will fall as rain or snow.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered