Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
3 · Considerable
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

Reactive storm and windslabs are likely today, and continued snowfall will ensure hazard remains elevated.

New snow will need time to settle and bond-keep plans conservative if you hope to head out this weekend.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5

    An estimated 70cm of new snow has fallen about the Divide, with around 20cm to the east as of friday morning. Expect reactive wind and storm slab conditions on many slopes above 1600m. A change to very cold southerly winds later on Friday will shift loading onto northerly aspects. The new snow has landed on a variety of snow surfaces; from crust to old stiff windslab and shallow powder in sheltered areas.

  • Loose Dry

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    1.5

    Loose dry avalanching is very likely as cold snow accumulates. Any hint of sun on Saturday morning will prompt spontaneous loose dry avalanching out of steep terrain.

Recent Avalanche Activity

A natural avalanche cycle may have taken place about the divide, but cloud is hampering observation.

Current Snowpack Conditions

As much as 70cm of new snow is estimated to have fallen about the Divide overnight Thursday, with 25cm at Mueller hut (1800m elevation). Winds were strong or gale NW, but have eased. Another 20-40cm of new snow is possible over Friday, down to around 1000m. This new snow overlies snowfall from earlier in last week. This was extensively distributed by gale NW and SW winds. Below around 1800m the snowpack is capped with a hard rain crust. Faceting has been observed in shallow snowpack areas in the Malte Brun range as well as a buried graupel layer that appears un-reactive to snowpack tests. The lower snowpack appears to be well bonded, but we are continuing to monitor crust facet laminates in the lower pack in the eastern part of the forecast area.

Mountain Weather

Forecast (friday)

Periods of rain, with snow lowering to 1200 metres.

Wind at 1000 metres

Northwesterly gale 80 km/h easing to 50 km/h late morning.

Wind at 2000 metres

Northwesterly severe gale 90 km/h easing to 50 km/h late morning.

Wind at 3000 metres

Northwesterly severe gale 90 km/h, easing to gale 70 km/h in the morning.

Freezing level

1700 metres lowering to 1300 metres by evening.

Issued: 6:47am Fri 24 Jul

Sliding Danger

Exposed areas could be firm, while lower elevation crusts will be refreezing after rain. Crampons and ice axe may be useful.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered