Avalanche forecast

Provo

Utah Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

  • Alpine
  • Treeline
  • Below treeline
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Out of date — this forecast expired 7 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Areas of CONSIDERABLE danger exist in the upper elevations of the Provo mountains where deep avalanches breaking down to the ground are possible. Westerly winds will also drift snow at the mid and upper elevations. Although any drifts you encounter are likely to be found on aspects facing north through southeast, cross-loading may create drifts on any aspect.

Watch for wet loose activity today on steep southerly aspects as well as the lower elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    West/southwest winds will continue to drift snow at the mid and upper elevations. Although most drifts will be found on leeward aspects facing north through southeast, cross-loading and the winds being channeled through terrain mean drifts may be possible on any aspect at the mid and upper elevations. These drifts will generally be 6-12" thick, and may break out widely in open, exposed terrain, possibly breaking above you.

    To read more about the complexity of wind-loading patterns, Drew has an excellent observation from Broads Fork in the Salt Lake mountains on Monday (link). In particular, note how upper elevation west aspects are wind-scoured, yet those same aspects at the mid elevations are wind-loaded. [photo: Hardesty]

    Cornices are quite large, and continue to grow during this windy period. Avoid traveling underneath cornices, as well as anywhere near the edge of ridges as cornices may break back much further than expected. Although now a few days old, it is worth reading this excellent observation from Sunday (link) where the author cautions "Please, stay back from the edge! Even further than you think."

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    4

    Assessing the snowpack in the Provo area mountains in avalanche terrain at mid and upper elevations on NW, N, NE, E aspects (and upper elevation SE) is difficult. Recent natural avalanches have broken at the ground in the Provo mountains, and control work on Sunday at a Cottonwood resort in the Salt Lake mountains produced a slide breaking down 3-4' deep in facets at the ground . Although it is hard to assess the likelihood of triggering one of these avalanches, the consequences of getting involved in one is likely deadly. The only mitigation strategy we have is to avoid avalanche terrain for now.

    Photo: Zoomed in view of the natural avalanche that was spotted last week.

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Recent Activity

Carey Price submitted a few photos of the winds as well as natural cornice fall in the Provo mountains from Monday:

Snow and Weather

Currently: Temperatures are in the upper 20's and low 30's F in the Provo mountains, and winds are southwesterly. Winds are averaging in the 20's and 30's mph, but along upper elevation ridges are gusting into the 40's and 50's mph.

For Today: Snow showers are possible today, and we'll be lucky to pick up a a trace to 1” new snow. Skies will be mostly cloudy and temperatures warming into the 30’s F. Winds will continue to blow out of the west, averaging in the 20's and 30's mph at the mid and upper elevations, with gusts in the 40's’s. At 11,000' gusts in the 50's mph can be expected.

For this Week: A mild westerly flow with warm temperatures and windy conditions. We may pick up a trace to 1" of new snow every occasional 12-hour period - perhaps up to 2" on Wednesday. A hint of a promising colder storm late Thursday/Friday, but waiting for weather models to come into agreement before we get any confidence in that system.

Additional Info

The low elevations are starting out above freezing this morning, and will warm into the low 40’s F during the day. Winds and cloud cover will help keep the snow surface cool, so I am not expecting much wet loose activity today, but watch for signs of the snow warming at the low elevations as well as steep southerly aspects including rollerballs and wet/loose sluffing, especially if the sun comes out for longer durations.

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This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.

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