Avalanche forecast

Nelson Lakes

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 1,800 m
3 · Considerable
Alpine · 1,200 m–1,800 m
2 · Moderate
Sub Alpine · below 1,200 m
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 days ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Wind slab danger will continue to be considerable on eastern half aspects particularly above 1800m as new snow is redistributed by gale-force winds from the westerly quarter. A rising freezing level during Monday will increase the danger of loose wet avalanches on all aspects on Monday afternoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    New snow is being redistributed by strong to severe gale winds from the westerly quarter. Wind slab danger is considerable in the high alpine. This issue may become more widespread while the freezing level remains at 1200m.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    2

    The danger of loose wet avalanches will increase on all aspects and elevations won Monday afternoon as the freezing level rises. The new snow will be sensitive to a rising freezing level. Care will be required if the snowpack becomes increasingly saturated and unsupportive during the day. This will be most likely on aspects that have transported new wind.

Recent Avalanche Activity

No observations have been possible during this current storm. Please provide any snowpack or avalanche observations using the link below. Thanks, Kaz, for the information about Robert Ridge! Everyone else can check out Kaz's observations using the link as well.

https://www.avalanche.net.nz/observations

Current Snowpack Conditions

Rain below 1800m has caused saturated the snow and caused significant snow ablation. Little old snow exists on north and west-facing aspects particularly. Cover above 1800m is consistent, particularly on south and east aspects. No significant weakness has been noted in the snowpack below 1800m. There are few observations of the strength of the snowpack above 1800m so continue to be cautious at upper elevations. Rain has saturated the snowpack below 1800m which will be refreezing due to the freezing level dropping. New snow continues to fall in the mid and high alpine accompanied by gale force winds from the westerly quarter.

Mountain Weather

Snow showers. Wind will be gale force westerlies. Freezing level will rise from 1200m to 2200m by Monday afternoon.

Sliding Danger

The snow will be hard where the wind has scoured off the new snow. An ice axe and crampons need to be carried for mountain travel.

Forecast Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident the likelihood of avalanches will increase with the forecast weather.
  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered