Avalanche forecast

Aoraki/Mt Cook

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory
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Avalanche danger

High Alpine · above 2,000 m
2 · Moderate
Alpine · 1,500 m–2,000 m
1 · Low
Sub Alpine · below 1,500 m
1 · Low
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Highlights

The wind increased on Tuesday, creating a new wind slab problem near the Main Divide.

The problem is expected to gradually decrease with stable weather and warming temperatures through Friday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5

    Wind slab problems exist on north-facing slopes near ridgelines.

    Watch for stiff, wind-pressed snow, particularly near ridgelines.

  • Loose Wet

    • All elevations
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1

    Loose wet avalanches are possible on steep, sunny slopes. Avoid steep sunny slopes during the warmest part of the day and move to colder aspects.

Recent Avalanche Activity

17 Aug: A skier triggered a Size 2 wind slab near Pioneer Hut at approximately 2300 m on a north-facing slope. See public observation.

16 Aug: Slab avalanching was generally confined to the recent storm snow, with one deeper slab observed on steep, unsupported NW-facing terrain on Mt Darwin at 2,700 m.16 Aug: Several Size 2 storm slabs were observed on south and southeast aspects in Twin Stream.

12 Aug: Heavy snow and rain overnight triggered a widespread cycle of wet loose and slab avalanches up to Size 3, mainly on south and east aspects.

Current Snowpack Conditions

Up to 30 cm of new snow fell overnight on 15 August, mainly in the southeast, with 5–10 cm on the Divide. Snow fell as low as 500 m. The new snow has generally bonded well to the old surface, with a cold clear night expected to further drying out the new snow.

Further west, a hard rain crust is still present around 2,000 m where less new snow fell. Deeper snowpack areas are generally strong, while shallow areas in the east have some faceting around crusts. This is not currently a major concern but could become reactive with a heavier load.

Mountain Weather

Partly cloudy, clearing to fine in the morning.

Wind at 1000 metresSoutherly 50 km/h, dying out in the morning.

Wind at 2000 metresSoutherly 50 km/h, but gale 70 km/h in exposed places, easing to 30 km/h everywhere before dawn.

Wind at 3000 metresSoutherly gale 70 km/h, easing to southwesterly 40 km/h before dawn.

Freezing level1500 metres, lifting to 2100 metres in the morning, then to 2500 metres in the evening.

Sliding Danger

Crampons and ice axe are useful at the moment for alpine travel. The firm rain crust is now buried by snowfall. In steep terrain or where the new snow is shallow this may be an issue underfoot or ski.

Forecast Confidence

High

  • The snowpack structure is well understood.
  • We are confident due to a stable weather pattern.
  • We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast.

New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)

Regions covered