Avalanche Forecast

Light winds, mostly sunny weather and mild daytime temperatures are expected again Sunday. This should not bring much change to snow conditions along the east slopes.

Most areas do not have sufficient loose surface snow to become wet and easily available for wet snow avalanches. But sunshine and warm afternoon temperatures will thaw and melt some snow Sunday midday and afternoon. Watch for wet snow deeper than a few inches or rollerballs or pinwheels on steep solar slopes. The problem of loose wet avalanches should not be extensive, but limit your terrain choices if you see more activity than expected.

Cornices are not listed as an expected problem, but may begin to weaken during the warmest part of the day so it's time to be practicing checking the ridges as we shift into spring.

Due to the low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation. Many areas below treeline do not have enough snow (new or existing) to pose an avalanche hazard.

The last snowfall in the Cascades is becoming a fading memory and was near the end of February when about 7 inches of snow fell east of the crest.

This was followed by local strong northeast winds in the Cascades at the end of February. Local wind slab formed perhaps mainly along the west slopes.

Sunny and gradually warmer weather has been seen the first week of March. This will have stabilized wind slab from the end of February and further consolidated the snowpack. Recent reports throughout the Cascades generally indicate hard or firm or stable old snow. There was almost no snowfall in January and February and none so far in March. The snowpack at lower elevations is meager to non-existent and way below normal. There have not been any reports of significant avalanches for a long time. Some folks are finding a bit of cool old snow surviving on some north to east slopes at high elevations.

NWAC pro-oberserver Tom Curtis was at Jove Peak last Wednesday in the central east zone and found a strong well drained snowpack. A pit had 55 cm of strong, well bonded snow over the old mid-January facet/crust layers over rounding grains. There was about 120 cm total snow at his location at 5500 ft on a SE aspect. The mid-January layer was not a problem due the strong overlying snow and a lack of CT or ECT results.

The North Cascade Mountain Guides at Harts Pass yesterday reported some cool snow on north to east slopes with numerous test giving no results and no avalanches.

Here is a photo showing some varied surface snow conditions from near Silver Star Peak yesterday by NWAC forecaster Dennis D'Amico.

Although the persistent January 15th facet/crust layers can still be identified in parts of the NE Cascades, they should be stabilized and have become unlikely to trigger. As a result the Persistent Slab problem has been removed from the northeast zone.