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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 27th, 2011–Dec 28th, 2011

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Poor - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday night: 5-10cm. Wednesday: 2-5cm. Freezing level rising to 1400m. Strong south-west winds. Thursday: 5-10cm. Strong south-west winds. Friday: Generally drier conditions. Weather forecasters have low confidence at the moment (read more in the Forecaster's Blog). Be prepared for local variations in weather, and assume the avalanche danger is higher than posted in areas with enhanced snow, rain or wind.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 naturally-triggered storm slab was observed on a west aspect at 2400m.

Snowpack Summary

20-40cm of total storm snow has been reported. Wind slabs exist on slopes lee to the west in the alpine and in open areas at treeline and below. A surface hoar/facet/crust interface is buried anywhere from 40- 80cm deep. Avalanche activity on this layer has slowed, but it remains a concern as snow-loading gradually builds this week, particularly on slopes which did not avalanche last week. This layer is still showing easy results in some areas. A sun crust is also buried in the alpine on some steep south and west aspects. The mid-pack is generally strong and well settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.