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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2018–Jan 5th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Columbia.

A weak layer is buried at a depth prime to human triggering.  As the overlying snow settles and forms a slab, destructive avalanches will likely result.  Cautious route finding is advised, particularly at treeline elevations.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with light snowfall, light southwesterly winds, freezing level near valley bottom.SATURDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 5-10 cm, light southerly winds, freezing level near valley bottom.SUNDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, light southwesterly winds, freezing level near valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, skiers triggered small avalanches on the December 15 layer below and at treeline elevations on southerly aspects.  Small, loose avalanches were noted on steep southerly slopes. Reactivity of the persistent slab is likely to increase with warmer temperatures below treeline as the snow forms slab properties.

Snowpack Summary

A warming trend is creating a dangerous slab above buried weak layers in some areas.  Numerous persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack.  Dry snow overlies two layers composed of weak and feathery surface hoar, with the deeper layer (December 15) buried 50 to 70 cm.  This layer is found most often around and below treeline.  As the overlying dry snow becomes more cohesive and forms a slab, this layer has the potential to create easily-triggerable destructive slab avalanches.  Where and when this will occur is tricky to predict and even professionals are scratching their heads about it. It is a good time for conservative decision-making.The snow surface is variable, consisting of dry snow on shaded aspects, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, and wind effect in exposed alpine and treeline locations.Deeper in the snowpack at depths of about 90 to 150 cm, a rain crust from November is producing variable snowpack test results, from sudden fracture characters to no result.  This layer is considered dormant for now, but could be triggered where the snowpack is thin.If you have any recent observations, please share them through the Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.