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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2018–Jan 30th, 2018

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Conditions are primed for human-triggered avalanches. If you see more than 30 cm of new snow consider the danger to be HIGH and avoid all avalanche terrain, free from overhead hazard.

Confidence

Low - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Flurries throughout the day (5 -10 cm). Light to moderate southerly winds. Alpine temperature -8. Wednesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Light westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -10.Thursday: Scattered flurries (5-10 cm possible). Light to moderate south-westerly winds. Alpine temperature near -8. More information can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Avalanche Summary

A natural storm slab avalanche cycle occurred on Monday with heavy snow and temperatures up to +2 Celsius in some tree line locations. See this MIN report for a good example of avalanche activity. Widespread avalanche activity was reported on Saturday near Allen Creek. Avalanches from Size 1 to 3 (many triggered by humans) were observed, especially on north east aspects between 1900m and 2600m. See this great MIN report for more information. Conditions remain primed for human triggered avalanches on Tuesday, with the potential for some surprisingly large avalanches given how many persistent weak layers exist in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

20-30 cm of storm snow fell Sunday into Monday and temperatures warmed up to -2 at tree line in the south of the region (and +2 near Barkerville). The new snow sits on a complex snowpack and there are three active weak layers that professionals are monitoring:1) Down about 40-80 cm is a crust and/or surface hoar layer buried mid-January. The surface hoar is up to 10 mm in size, found at all elevation bands and very reactive on north east aspects between 1900-2600m.2) Deeper in the snowpack, the early-January persistent weak layer is found 50 to 130 cm below the surface. It is composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and sun crust on steep solar aspects and found at all elevation bands. Snowpack tests show sudden fracture characters with easy to moderate loads and high propagation potential. 3) Another weak layer buried mid-December consisting of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination is buried 110 to 170 cm deep. It is most problematic at and below tree line.A rain crust buried in November is 100 to 200 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.See here for a good summary of snowpack test results.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.