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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 19th, 2020–Jan 20th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Watch for pockets of reactive slab in wind effected areas.

Weather Forecast

Scattered flurries with up to 4cm accumulation forecast for today, accompanied by Southerly winds in the 20km/h range and a 1400m freezing level. Cloudy with sunny periods and a rising freezing level to 1800m on Monday accompanied by moderate Southerly winds.

Snowpack Summary

15-25cm of low density snow overlies previous wind effect and surface facets from last weeks cold spell (this may be a reactive slab in isolated areas where it has been stiffened by the wind). The Dec 27th surface hoar/ crust layer is buried approximately 100cm. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Summary

A field team triggered a small (size 1) soft slab avalanche in a treeline bowl yesterday, this failed on the previous wind stiffened and facetted surface down 25cm.

A skier triggered small (size 1.5) soft slab avalanche on Avalanche Crest (W aspect at treeline).

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.