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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 31st, 2024–Apr 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells, Dogtooth, East Purcell, West Purcell.

Rapid warming will increase the likelihood of triggering large avalanches.

The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered size 1 dry and wet loose avalanches were reported on all aspects in steep terrain on Saturday.

Snowpack Summary

Strong solar radiation has formed a surface crust everywhere except north facing terrian at upper elevations.

15 to 30 cm of recent snow and southwest wind formed wind slabs in specific locations below alpine ridgecrests. The recent snow overlies a crust on all but north facing aspects at treeline and above where a weak layer of surface hoar may be present.

A widespread crust with facets above is down 60 to 110 cm. Steep or convex terrain features with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack at treeline and above are the most likely places to trigger this layer.

Weak facets at the base of the snowpack remain a concern in steep, rocky alpine terrain with a shallow or thin to thick snowpack.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night

Clear skies. 10 to 20 km/h northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6° C. Freezing level 800 m.

Monday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 3° C. Freezing level 2400 m.

Tuesday

Sunny. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6° C. Freezing level 2800 m.

Wednesday

Mix of sun and cloud. 20 to 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2° C. Freezing level 1800 m.

Check out the Mountain Weather Forecast for additional weather information.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.