Touchy conditions are expected to continue, especially at higher elevations. Check out the most recent Forecaster Blog for more details on the current conditions. http://www.avalanche.ca/blogs/VLsBsCgAACYAJdfM/mid-jan-sh
Confidence
Fair - Wind effect is extremely variable
Weather Forecast
Expect generally cloudy skies with occasional sunny breaks on Tuesday and Wednesday as a dry weak ridge develops over the southern half of the province. By Thursday it looks like the ridge may break-down somewhat allowing for moist pacific system to enter the region from the northwest. If this happens, accumulations will likely be light. Winds should remain light to moderate from the west-northwest. Freezing levels will hover around 800m on Tuesday and Wednesday, and then rise to about 1000m on Thursday.
Avalanche Summary
Because of stormy conditions throughout the weekend, avalanche observations were quite limited. That said, numerous natural storm slab avalanches to size 2 were noted. Some storm slab avalanches were also triggered remotely from distances of up to 30m. In the north of the region on Sunday, a large avalanche was reported to have failed in alpine terrain and ran all the way to valley bottom. In the height of the storm I'm sure there was more destructive activity in alpine terrain where winds were stronger. Due to the persistent nature of the current instability, I expect continued human triggered slab avalanche activity within the recent storm snow.
Snowpack Summary
Between 30 and 50cm of new snow has fallen since Friday night, and has been distributed by strong winds into deeper, more cohesive deposits in higher wind-exposed terrain. The new snow overlies widespread 10-30mm surface hoar and a sun crust on steep sun-exposed slopes. I would expect continued touchy conditions, especially in areas where the recent snowfall exists as a cohesive slab.The problematic mid-December surface hoar/crust layer is typically down 90-130cm below the surface.. The reactivity of this persistent weak layer appears to be quite variable but still has the potential for large, destructive avalanches in some areas. The layer appears to be the most reactive in the south of the region at and below treeline. In these locations the surface hoar is more likely to sit directly above a hard crust.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.