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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2025–Dec 16th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland, Birkenhead, Duffey, South Chilcotin, Stein, Taseko.

The next wave of the storm puts us back in snowpack building mode. Carefully measure your exposure to avalanche terrain and be ready back off where you encounter signs of instability.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Observations have been limited during the storm, but two size 3 avalanches ran in the Hurley and Upper Lillooet Provincial Park areas on Sunday. Whether they failed on the November crust is uncertain, but this layer is likely to have been the involved in some of the larger releases during the storm.

Looking forward, a switch to dry snow will promote the formation of a new storm slab problem, with snowfall rates, temperatures, and danger expected to peak at end of day Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

10 - 30 cm of new snow should accumulate by end of day Tuesday, covering a rain-soaked snowpack to about 2100 m and adding to somewhat uncertain dry snow accumulations above this elevation. Reactive new storm slab and/or wind slab problems should be the result.

A crust with facets, formed in mid-November, was buried 50 to 100 cm before the storm. At least two wet slabs are believed to have failed at this layer in the storm and continuing snowfall prevents us from gaining much confidence in it, even as temperatures cool.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Cloudy with flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of new snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level bottoming out at 1100 m.

Tuesday
Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 5 to 20 cm of new snow. 20 - 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Wednesday
A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries after 20 to 30 cm of overnight snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -4 °C. Freezing level 1300 m.

Thursday
A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of new snow, including overnight amounts. 20 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level rising from 1000 to 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Back off slopes as the surface becomes moist or wet with rising temperatures.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.