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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 24th, 2012–Feb 25th, 2012

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

South Columbia.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Tonight: Moderate snowfall (locally heavy) - 10-20cm. The freezing level (FL) should be near valley bottom. Winds shift to moderate from the NW. Saturday: Unsettled conditions with up to 15cm of snow. FL rising to 800m. Winds are moderate from the NW. Sunday: Mainly cloudy and drier. FL around 500m and winds ease to light from the NW. Monday: A mix of sun and cloud. FL near valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

A large natural avalanche cycle occurred on Wednesday and Thursday. Slab avalanches were reported up to Size 3.5 on all aspects and at all elevations. There were also numerous reports of skier triggered and remotely triggered avalanches on a variety aspects. The potential for human triggered avalanches remains high in all terrain over 30 degrees and it may be possible to trigger an avalanche from the bottom of a slope.

Snowpack Summary

Strong and variable winds have created weak wind slabs on a variety of aspects at all elevations. Up to 80cm of new snow now sits on the February 16th Surface Hoar layer. The February 8th weakness is now down 90-120cm. This layer is a combination of weak layers: In most locations it marks a widespread surface hoar layer. On steep south & west facing aspects a sun crust that formed during the drought was also buried on Feb. 8th. This crust likely has a bit of faceting below it too, meaning that most terrain in the region has a weak layer 40-60cm under the snow surface. These buried weaknesses have made conditions very tricky with the potential for triggering in lower angle terrain and from a distance. It is should be noted that large cornices remain widespread throughout the region and may fail as temperatures fluctuate over the next few days.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.