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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 8th, 2022–Apr 9th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

A thick crust will provide for easy travel but poor bonding surface for any new snow. Watch for wind slabs under exposed ridges and into the alpine.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Unsettled in the wake of the cold front with isolated flurries, up to 10 cm by morning and falling with moderate southwest winds. Freezing levels falling to valley bottom with a possible inversion.

Saturday: Blustery with alpine flurries, up to 10 cm through the day. Moderate southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1500 m, alpine high -1 C. 

Sunday: Flurries, 5-15 cm. Light westerly winds. Freezing levels around 1300 m, alpine high -3.

Monday: Overnight flurries with up to 15 cm by morning. Light but gusty east wind. Freezing level 1100 m, alpine high -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

A few wet loose avalanches were reported on Thursday from steep, rocky, solar terrain.

Over the past few days ski cutting and explosive control produced storm slab avalanches up to size 1.5 in the alpine and treeline. Several size 1.5 natural storm slab and dry loose avalanches were also observed.

Snowpack Summary

As temperatures drop, a new crust will form on all aspects and elevations. Any new flurries will not bond well to the crust and wind may quickly redistribute snow to lee features.

Multiple crust exist in the upper snowpack. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Avoid exposure to slopes that have cornices overhead.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 20 cm of new snow.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.