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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 18th, 2022–Apr 19th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Rising temps with snow (rain at lower elevations) will prevent a solid overnight crust recovery.

This being said, it will still feel like winter at Treeline and above as temps drop after the passage of precipitation.

Weather Forecast

A minor disturbance passes through tonight, then unsettled conditions for several days.

Tonight: Flurries, 10cm, FZL 800m, gusty strong S winds near the end of the storm

Tues: Scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -6*C, FZL 1400m, light to strong gusty W winds

Wed: Sun and cloud, trace snow, Alp high -3*C, FZL 1800m, light SE winds

Snowpack Summary

Incoming snow (rain below 1400m) will bury a supportive crust (5-20cm thick, up to ~2200m) or variable soft to hard wind slab in the Alpine. Where it rains, expect a soft surface and near isothermal conditions when the surface crust thaws. There are isolated pockets of soft, preserved powder on N'ly aspects high in the Alpine...continue hunting!

Avalanche Summary

Natural activity has been minimal this past week. Be wary of cornices, limit your exposure below them and use extreme caution if approaching them from the ridge.

On Wednesday there was a size 3 skier triggered (on belay) cornice fall off of Mt Bonney. Last Monday, there was a close call when a small wind slab nearly took a skier into a crevasse!

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.