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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Apr 6th, 2022–Apr 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Major warming with periods of strong spring sun are expected to create dangerous avalanche conditions on Thursday and a natural avalanche cycle is possible in the afternoon. 

Check out this new blog post for examples of avalanche activity we may see Thursday. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A major warming event is forecast for Thursday with freezing levels climbing to around 2800 m. A storm system is expected to arrive Thursday night which will replace the warm air and linger into Friday morning. 

Wednesday Night: Mainly cloudy, moderate SW wind, freezing level climbing to around 2000 m. 

Thursday: Mainly cloudy in the morning, a mix of sun and cloud in the afternoon, moderate to strong SW wind, freezing level high around 2800 m.

Thursday night: Precipitation 30-50 mm, strong to extreme SW wind, freezing level 2500 m dropping to around 1200 m.

Friday: Snowfall 10-15 cm in the morning, sunny breaks in the afternoon, moderate SW wind, freezing level high around 1300 m.

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud, moderate W wind, freezing level high around 800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, widespread size 1 wet loose avalanches were observed in the afternoon. This MIN report describes a size 2.5 storm slab which had occurred during the storm and is visible from the highway. 

Observations are very limited this time of year. If you are getting out in the backcountry, please consider sharing your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

The recent storm appears to have produced around 40-50 cm of new snow for the North Shore mountains and 70-90 cm closer to Squamish. This storm snow has buried a widespread, supportive melt-freeze crust. In the North Shore mountains, a breakable crust formed during the middle of the storm which now sits in the middle of the recent storm snow. Strong southwest wind has likely redistributed this new snow in exposed, high-elevation terrain forming touchy wind slabs and likely developing large cornices.  

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
  • Remember that in the spring strong solar radiation and warm temperatures can weaken the snow in a matter of minutes.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.